It is but three days since the EU referendum and Britain is in crisis – typically defined as “an abnormal and unstable situation that threatens strategic objectives, reputation and financial viability”. Achieving a coherent and agreed stance on how we extract ourselves with minimal damage and maximum advantage is both difficult and essential. It will take political leadership of a very high order in order to find a common position amongst the different elements of the “Leavists” and to negotiate a good divorce settlement with the EU with mutually beneficial arrangements thereafter. So, what characteristics should we look for in our leaders as we collectively face practical and emotional challenges of such great moment? Here are seven suggestions. If followed, they will assist the choice of political leaders, enable recovery, underpin the necessary campaign plan and help to unify our currently very divided country:
- Be honest. The dishonesty about facts on both sides that at times characterized the referendum campaign must cease. Politicians should always be open and clear about the implications of their suggested courses of action. Trust in politicians will otherwise reduce yet further. As the legendary Sandhurst Academy Sergeant Major John Lord said, the most essential asset in a leader is honesty. Those who are chosen as leaders must be honest about what is possible and not possible.
- Explain the vision. It is a function of good leadership to set out a vision. During the campaign neither side laid out a set of clear, realistic and achievable aspirations beyond Brexit itself. An understanding of where we need to be in order to extract ourselves from our current crisis and, even more importantly, how to benefit from the opportunities that are now presented is essential.
- Unity of purpose. Once the vision is set and broadly agreed, then intent and “unity of purpose” can be clearly articulated. Unity of purpose will elevate the route to recovery above petty party politics and infighting, and will be the context for recruiting the talents and skills required from outside government. We have to pull together as one team in one direction to get out of the social, political and economic crisis we now face.
- Have a plan. As Field Marshal Montgomery said when asked to advise on how to deal with a difficult situation: “First you need a plan, then you need a man”. The scale and number of the challenges we now face are immense. For example, to what extent can we continue to take advantage of the single market while at the same time fulfilling many Leavists’ demands for a curb on freedom of movement? And under what terms will movement of EU citizens still be permissible, even desirable? What political relationship will be appropriate between the UK and the EU? What will cooperation on borders look like? Will our banks still be able to trade in Euro denominations? What about legacy rights for Britons living in EU countries? How and to what extent do we replace EU subsidies to farmers? Where do we want to be on a spectrum of free trade versus protectionism and will this need to vary from sector to sector? How low can we set business taxes in order to attract foreign companies? And hundreds of other questions besides. A good plan will seek to address these, in consultation with European colleagues. Such a plan will need to be flexible in order to cover the full range of eventualities and contingencies – what American military call “branches and sequels”. We can’t just muddle through and improvise as we British often do. And we can’t wait until the appointment of a new PM to formulate the plan.
- Appeal to interests – not to fears. Napoleon is credited with saying that there are two levers for moving men: interest and fear. Some of our politicians played on the electorate’s fears rather than explaining how “Remain” or “Leave” would serve the people’s interests. Collective or overlapping interests need to be identified in detail and pursued. And not just British interests but those with whom we would have trade and political agreements in the future.
- Don’t grandstand. A very different type of discourse is now required as we move towards negotiations with the EU on the terms of our exit and the arrangements that will follow. Can we expect that our leaders will be sufficiently disciplined not to spoil negotiations by playing loudly to the gallery back at home? “Megaphone diplomacy” is divisive and makes negotiation more difficult. We should not choose leaders who indulge in it.
- Have patience and determination. The EU’s decision-makers have no reason to do us any more favours. The road will be hard and long. Many of those who got us to the start of this road – where we are today – are not those who have the attributes to take us any further. Endless patience, staying power, skills of diplomacy and engagement are now required. Experts in particular fields – for example in international and treaty law, commerce, banking, security – will be needed to take forward negotiations and to help secure trade deals. Whatever is achieved post-EU will be as much a cooperative venture as staying in the EU would have been. It can never be about just us. “Ourselves alone” as a desired outcome may have beguiled a part of the electorate but it is an utterly unrealistic fantasy in our globalized world.